Why it's not over for Gingrich: Iowa does not a president make

Against the emerging narrative and punditarian predictions I’m going to stick my neck out and say New Gingrich WILL win the Republican nomination and not Mitt Romney. I am not a political scientist and neither I’m I some mainstream media pundit so my views should as always be taken with a grain of salt. It’s simply my gut feeling which nevertheless is deeply steeped in my observations from 2008. The person who wins Iowa does NOT always win the nomination. If you don’t believe me, ask Mike Huckabee. Second, many are behaving as though Iowa is the be all and end all of the primary race. Yes I live in the state and I’d like for it to have such coronation powers but the fact of the matter is that the primary season begins but does not end in the Hawkeye state.

There’s New Hampshire and 49 other states to go around many of which Gingrich is actually doing better. Considering Romney’s geographical and historical affiliations to the next nominating state (New Hampshire) anything less than a convincing win will be considered a loss. Then there’s South Carolina where Newt is also currently leading. Though Mitt has been endorsed by the state’s Tea Party leaning governor, Niki Haley, a fact not to be underestimated considering Mitt’s unpopularity with that conservative bloc endorsements mean little in a primary race like this. Where Iowa and New Hampshire, have failed South Carolina has only been too happy to steer it in a more practical direction. The possibilities get even murkier after that. Guess who comes up after South Carolina? Florida! Yes, Florida, the good old battle ground state so important that former New York Mayor Giuliani hinged his campaign strategy. Gingrich is leading there as well.

Bob Dole won the Iowa primaries twice but never became president. Clinton didn’t win it the first time but was crowned president. John McCain was a distant third the last time around but clinched the nomination. I understand the importance of momentum and as someone who has embraced Iowa as my home away from home for now; I wholeheartedly relish and admire the attention the state is receiving. It’s almost akin to being wooed. However we should not overhype the importance of next Tuesday’s event because one primary does not a nomination clinch. The down side to this though is that unlike Barack Obama where people got to like him, the more they knew about him, the opposite is true for Gingrich. Simply speaking this race might stretch much longer than we expected. Romney might end up winning it but it’s definitely not going to be on a silver platter. Good luck to all the candidates and for the sake of America, and dare I say the world, may the best candidate win.