What New Gingrich's win in South Carolina means:

a) GOP voters don't care about "values" after all
b) It's not the economy, stupid
c) The base wants a fighter, the establishment wants a standard bearer
d) Debates matter
e) SuperPacs are overrated

What Ghana & Africa can learn from the Iowa Caucuses

There was no violence, shouting, threats or even a strong room. No one stole a ballot box nor did any candidate threaten war if they lost. In one precinct, people simply left right after voting, trusting the officials to count and report accurately. The whole city did not come to a standstill. People were not wielding machetes, stores did not close down and no one blocked roads. Everyone simply went about their business. Most of the people who came to caucus did not even wear party T shirts. They were just interested in voting. I was almost moved to tears when a young college student mounted the stage to give a forceful pitch for Ron Paul when his turn was due. It wasn’t just about his eloquence. It was about the genuine compassion and love with which he spoke about his country. And you can imagine my delight when I saw student journalists, filming, recording, interviewing and feverishly trying to cover for their publications. Till date, the University of Ghana does not have a TV station or a print/online newspaper.

Every demographic group was represented: young and old, farmers and barbers, professors and artists. Yet the convener and moderator was a college senior. Everything was conducted in an open, transparent and respectful fashion. What was even more admirable was the way loosing candidates conceded and in some cases congratulated the winners both in public and private. It made them look dignified even in defeat. Back home people say democracy is expensive and though that may be true, it is also cultural: a learned culture in which people are willing to participate in a clean, descent and professional manner without invoking doom. It’s a pretty seductive process if you ask me. The Iowa caucuses are an inspiring testament to the beauty and triumph of democracy when given the chance.

Lessons from Iowa: people power prevails

On this day four years ago Iowans unlocked history by paving the way for a tall lanky man of Luo ancestry to become president. No matter what anyone says about America's agricultural heartland or the "Bible belt" as some like to call it, the caucuses hold important lessons for serious democracies anywhere. At 7pm men and women, young and old, farmers and professors, black, white and brown will meet in churches, schools, libraries and homes to engage in political discourse and register their votes in the republican nominating cycle. The concept is novel as much for its process and as its substance. Procedurally it is the last standing attempt at Athenian politics in any developed democracy. But the biggest lesson lies in the substance. Over the years Iowans have defied the odds and despite the ubiquity of horse race coverage inoculated themselves from the daily circus of guessing who is up and who's down by protecting and effectively utilizing the one thing no one can take from them: their voice.

In Iowa you will be vetted, you will be tested and you will be tried. No matter what the political cognoscenti said, no matter what the pundits said, over the years Iowans have used their caucuses to send a message and contribute in significant ways in shaping policy and making history even if their candidate never won the generals. That's what democracy is about. All of us can learn something from this. Whether you're interested in politics or not, polices that are made by rulers affected the ruled. The worst we can do is to be apathetic when we really shouldn't. Change doesn't have to always come through protests. Iowa revolutionized American politics quietly but fundamentally by appropriating the power of their voice. And we can all do the same.

Would Obama prefer Gingrich over Romney? Why democrats should be careful what they wish for.

by Etse Sikanku on Saturday, December 10, 2011 at 11:15am

There’s been a lot of talk about how Democrats are salivating over the prospect of taking on Gingrich rather than Romney. I understand in the backrooms of the Democratic operation offices some are doing flip dances and boasting about how they’re going to win 49 states if Gingrich becomes the nominee. I beg to differ. I think this race is actually going to be closely fought one if Gingrich emerges on top.

It’s not difficult to understand why Democrats view Gingrich a weaker opponent. In an era where being a Washington insider is uncool as it can get, Newt carries the burden of the bona fide career politician. His speakership is viewed as the ultimate model of the tempestuous, partisan and combative politics that produces gridlock. Right now, Americans are tired of the bickering and gamesmanship that go on in DC. This past week, ordinary citizens picketed around the offices of House Speaker John Boehner chanting “Pass the jobs bill” Pass the jobs bill. Clearly, democrats will have the chance to channel that anger to a dyed-in-the-wool Washingtonian like Gingrich.

Perhaps even more debilitating for Gingrich than his political history is his commercial antics. Again, there is palpable anger throughout the United States against an increasing inequality gap between the rich and the poor or between the top 1% and the 99%. For many Americans, Gingrich belongs to the 1%. The liberal mainstream media are painting him as “scam artist” and self-serving politician whose only interest is in using political capital as a means to personal gain. In fact John Sununu, former White House official and a Romney surrogate is reported to have used the word “self-aggrandizing” in a recent conference call. This is definitely not a tag any politician wants to be associated with in these days of economic malaise, joblessness and growing animosity against the so called 1%.

However if all the democrats have against Gingrich are tales of historical baggage then 2012 might not be the home run they deem it to be. First, people change. Newt has apologized for some of his missteps in the 1990s. Almost everyone who knows Newt knows about all his political and personal troubles including two failed marriages. Surely conservative voters are well aware of all this baggage but have decided to go with Newt because they want a man they identify with who can take the fight to Obama. Newt’s failures have been reported reported and over reported in the news media so much so that it sounds dead on hearing. There will be nothing new to the ear anymore and Newt is lucky to belong to a race where these dalliances will be forgiven. Once this hurdle is cleared, all we have is a Gingrich who excites conservatives, who will take the fight o Obama and who can use his debating and intellectual prowess to match up or perhaps outmatch Obama. Despite all his baggage Mr. Gingrich is actually leading Obama 46-44 in the battleground state of Ohio.

Romney on the other hand will be easy fodder for Obama. Here’s a man who does not even excite members of his own party. Republicans cannot bear to have Romney on the ticket and the antipathy towards him is so strong that many conservatives will most likely just stay away if Romney gets on top. Romney’s biggest strength in the generals lie in the economy but things could get better and Obama should be able to carve a strong economic argument for 2012. That being said, there are other factors that might seriously affect the 2012 race including the much awaited Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare the biggest policy initiative of the Obama administration, Eric Holder and his fast and furious shenanigans and the state of foreign policy in the heat of campaign season. 2012 is by no means a closed election and the earlier democrats realize this, the better for their own prospects.

Battle of the nerds? Professor Gingrich vs Professor Obama. 2012 shaping up to be a textbook election. Newt prevails in debate.

by Etse Sikanku on Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 8:14am

Yesterday’s presidential debate did nothing to stop the changing tides of the Republican race. On a day when Mitt Romney needed to halt the surging Newt, it was the former who came out of the debate bruised by an awkward $10,000 bet with the lowly polled Rick Perry. Mr Gingrich put up a strong and measured performance last night. If nothing dramatic happens between now and January it should be safe to say that Mr Gingrich will end up being Barack Obama’s opponent in 2012.

Let’s face it: Mr Gingrich is a smart man. He reminds me of the wonky kid in graduate school who constantly provides flashes of brilliance and revelation spiced with other “aha moments” during class seminars. For the entire night Newt turned even the most vicious attacks into strong defenses. On the accusation that he’s a career politician he said to Romney: “The only reason you didn’t become a career politician is because you lost to Ted Kennedy”. Ouch. On his Palestinians are "invented" denunciations he retorted: “I will tell the truth, even if it's at the risk of causing some confusion, sometimes with the timid." Somewhere in his answer he managed to invoke the legacy of Regan: "Reagan believed the power of truth, restated to the world, reframed the world," Gingrich said. "I'm a Reaganite. I'm proud to be a Reaganite." How do you pull that off? In just one answer, he managed to call Romney timid, embolden his conservative credentials while appealing to the Jewish vote.

Granted, such responses might not fly well in a general election where independents hold sway but the Republican crowd is a very different one. This race might be over quicker than we imagined. Gingrich is currently leading in all the early nominating states of Iowa, South Carolina and Florida with the exception of New Hampshire. All Gingrich needs to do is to hold steady through the holiday season. If Romney loses in New Hampshire or even wins by a smaller margin than expected, he’s toast. Gingrich will take the momentum into the next two states where he’s polling highly and Romney may never be able to get in even before Super Tuesday. As it stands I don’t see any of the other candidates upending Newmentum so the Obama machine might just as well start preparing for a long and tough slog with Professor Gingrich who if he wins will become America’s first Phd president since Woodrow Wilson.

Why it's not over for Gingrich: Iowa does not a president make

Against the emerging narrative and punditarian predictions I’m going to stick my neck out and say New Gingrich WILL win the Republican nomination and not Mitt Romney. I am not a political scientist and neither I’m I some mainstream media pundit so my views should as always be taken with a grain of salt. It’s simply my gut feeling which nevertheless is deeply steeped in my observations from 2008. The person who wins Iowa does NOT always win the nomination. If you don’t believe me, ask Mike Huckabee. Second, many are behaving as though Iowa is the be all and end all of the primary race. Yes I live in the state and I’d like for it to have such coronation powers but the fact of the matter is that the primary season begins but does not end in the Hawkeye state.

There’s New Hampshire and 49 other states to go around many of which Gingrich is actually doing better. Considering Romney’s geographical and historical affiliations to the next nominating state (New Hampshire) anything less than a convincing win will be considered a loss. Then there’s South Carolina where Newt is also currently leading. Though Mitt has been endorsed by the state’s Tea Party leaning governor, Niki Haley, a fact not to be underestimated considering Mitt’s unpopularity with that conservative bloc endorsements mean little in a primary race like this. Where Iowa and New Hampshire, have failed South Carolina has only been too happy to steer it in a more practical direction. The possibilities get even murkier after that. Guess who comes up after South Carolina? Florida! Yes, Florida, the good old battle ground state so important that former New York Mayor Giuliani hinged his campaign strategy. Gingrich is leading there as well.

Bob Dole won the Iowa primaries twice but never became president. Clinton didn’t win it the first time but was crowned president. John McCain was a distant third the last time around but clinched the nomination. I understand the importance of momentum and as someone who has embraced Iowa as my home away from home for now; I wholeheartedly relish and admire the attention the state is receiving. It’s almost akin to being wooed. However we should not overhype the importance of next Tuesday’s event because one primary does not a nomination clinch. The down side to this though is that unlike Barack Obama where people got to like him, the more they knew about him, the opposite is true for Gingrich. Simply speaking this race might stretch much longer than we expected. Romney might end up winning it but it’s definitely not going to be on a silver platter. Good luck to all the candidates and for the sake of America, and dare I say the world, may the best candidate win.

Ghallywood or Gollywood? Ghana movie industry suffering from identity crisis

I know I’m supposed to be burying my head in books so I don’t get kicked out of school but I really need to get this out. Who’s responsible for naming our movie industry in Ghana? Ghallywood? Really? Come on guys. Hollywood, Bollywood, Nollywood all sound pretty cool to me but Ghallywood? Why can’t they simply go with Gollywood or Ghollywood. At least that doesn’t sound as raw as Ghallywood. There’s just something about "Ghallywood" that makes me cringe each time I hear or see the name. And by the way does it have to be a "wood"? Do we necessarily have to remain in the shadows of America and other woods? I hope someone rethinks the idea because as the saying goes, there’s something in a name indeed.