Is Obama's second term a big deal?

Yesterday, my friend, Jenny asked me why Obama's second term is a big deal. Considering the faltering list of Republican probables, I interpreted her question to mean "Is Obama's second term a foregone conclusion?" and then went ahead to provide an answer. Later she told me what she actually meant was "Why should his run for a second term surprise anyone?” since most sitting presidents do end up running again. Though I misunderstood her initially, I think both questions are still relevant. I’d fail if this were an exam though, hehe. What follows is my facebook response to the misunderstood version of her question. What do you think? Will 2012 be a walk in the park for Obama?

Your question brings to fore the probable impression among most Africans that Obama's second term should be a done deal. People don't understand why someone as inspiring as Obama who run an impressive campaign and won convincingly shouldn't be given a second term. More so when he hasn't committed any particularity incriminating gaffe. On the contrary he has won a Nobel: arguably the most prestigious and sought after prize any human being on earth can aspire to.

Who wouldn't take a personality like Obama as their president? Why would Americans not give him four more years? Or more to the point like you asked, Why is the second term bid a big deal. Well, first of all one will have to recognize that the American political terrain including voter behavior is vastly different from other countries. In fact the character of the American voting system or pattern can be understood within the broader idea of American exceptionalism. That is the exceptional or different nature of American politics.

A major reason why his second term is a big deal is that just like politics anywhere nothing can be guaranteed. Secondly the American public didn't know as much about him back in 2008 as they do now. He now has a record they can judge him by. It is also a big deal because the Republicans are determined to make him a one term president. 2012 will not be 2008. There are many things that have taken place that could determine people judgment of Obama. Some of these include the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan which he promised to end, the probable war in Libya, economy which is still in intensive care unit, crippling unemployment rates and a huge budget deficit.

Also let’s not forget that some of the conditions which vaulted him to success in 2008 may not exist in the same way they were back then. By this i mean, we don't know how much the internet and social media will contribute to votes next year. And perhaps more importantly we also don't know how enthusiastic College students will be next year. As we know this voting bloc played a crucial role in Obama's success. 68% of young people who cast their ballots voted for Obama and 2008 was seen as the year with the largest youth turn out vote since 1972.

So these are some reasons why his second term is a big deal. We could also talk about how much of a challenge the Republicans might be depending on who they chose. Plus it’s still more than a year until ballots are cast. Anything can happen.