Why Gingrich might clinch the Republican nomination

There’s been a lot of talk lately about Republican dissatisfaction with Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. You’d think, listening to all the chatter, that these are the only people running for the GOP nomination. The media are decidedly fixated on the horse race between the two candidates, focusing very little on the others.

I believe we’re yet to see a full scale coronation of any republican candidate until the causes and primary season actually begins. Having followed the 2008 elections closely, history tells us that a certain John McCain was polling in the single digits around this same period during the last election cycle. In fact if you followed the Iowa logic, you wouldn’t have guessed right who Obama's Republican opponent would be. McCain came up a distant third place trailing Huckabee and Romney and tied with guess who—Fred Thompson at 13%.

I think it’s still too early to hedge bets on who gets the Republican nomination. Gingrich has some bold ideas and is the only one so far among all the nominees to put forth a straightforward plan on how he’d go about solving the country’s problems.

I don’t necessarily agree with all his ideas but there’s little doubt that this is a man of immense political strength and deep conviction. Newt is a big thinker who has to be credited at least for being bold and clear minded with his proposals. He may be polling badly now but could end up pulling a McCain.

Agyeman Rawlings and the presidency

In the ensuing cacophony surrounding Nana Konadu’s probable run, a pro-con analysis.

Pro: Konadu has political muscle and relentless ambition to go through a party primary. A major figure within the Rawlings era, her role as first lady was more than ceremonial. She participated in and sometimes led lots of programs and initiatives under her husband’s presidency. Many in Ghana will remember her trailblazing work in gender equity. Under her watch the term “girl-child” and “women emancipation” became popular. She’s ambitious, wields great organizational skills and can get things done. Beyond her social and developmental accomplishments her appetite and mastery of Ghana’s political trajectory is legendary.

Unlike Mills, she doesn’t only have the ability to stomach missiles from the NPP; she’s more than capable of conceiving, assembling and launching her own atomic bombs. With Nana K on top, NDC will be on auto-offensive. In Konadu, they have someone whose iconic status can immediately ignite passion, activism and excitement among the party’s base. Mrs. Rawlings has a Palin problem though. She’ll do great in a party primary but will struggle to garner independent votes needed to win nationally. Her candidature in and of itself should be an exciting one: first female with a serious chance of becoming Ghana’s president.

On a lighter note the video embedded shows Mrs Rawlings dancing at an NDC Norway event.

Cons: That Konadu can lay claim to the presidency—however audacious—shows how little the balance of power within Ghana politics has shifted. Agyeman Rawlings has serious questions to answer regarding her role and that of her husband during “their” military and civilian stewardship of Ghana. I have no doubt Agyeman Rawlings will bring vast experience to governance but there are many who want to move Ghana beyond the shadow of the Rawlings’s. Internally the NDC needs to treat Konadu’s stake with extreme caution because her family’s legacy is indispensable to their electoral prospects. Anyone who deems her presidential experiment facetiously does so at their own risk.

Ps: My suggested campaign slogan for Konadu is to borrow Hillary’s… “buy one get one free

Will the youth fall for Obama again?

In the paradigm shifting elections of 2008, young people made a difference. Without their vociferous support Obama wouldn’t be in the White House today. We saw a glimpse of what their absence might mean during the 2010 mid-terms where Democrats made huge losses due to lackluster participation. If college students decide to stay home —as they historically do—Barack Obama could very well lose his re-election campaign. In this video report I explore whether the youthful fervor of 2008 is still present on college campuses.

In a move reminiscent of 2008, Obama team fires first email

Even before Republicans cast lots for their 2012 standard-bearer, it appears the Democratic machine is in motion. In a familiar return to its grassroots organizational strategy that amassed expansive voter records, the Obama re-election team has sent out a first round of emails to supporters.

Jim Messina fired emails to registered Obama supporters late Thursday. “You're in for 2012: Welcome and thanks.” he wrote. Messina is one of the fresh faces on Obama’s team, taking over from David Plouffe as campaign manager after stints in the White House and Congress.

The email was short, simple, lacked the verve and charm of 2008 but went straight to the point. It comprised about 190 words. Supporters are asked to join either by volunteering, donating or spreading the word. In 2008 Barack Obama tapped into his community organizing skills by running a prolific grassroots campaign which grew into an enthralling movement.

“…whether you're a first-time supporter or a veteran organizer, this campaign belongs to you. You own it, and you power it” Messina said.

This email comes as no surprise as President Obama recently launched his re-election bid in a flurry of emails and web messages. No presidential candidate is known to have amassed as huge a record of ordinary citizens as Obama did in the previous elections. Equally important, the current president effectively employed new media and social networking tools to elicit more support especially among the country’s young population.

If observers are looking for any signs regarding how similar or different this campaign will be from the last, then this introductory email gives little or no clue.

Messina’s email mentions no specific details as to how the campaign will be run except to indicate in broad terms that it will be “different”.

“Now forget everything you know about politics. Because I can tell you that the next year and a half will be like nothing you've seen from a campaign. If we're going to win, we have to be tougher, smarter, and more innovative than ever before” the new campaign manager said.

In an effort to recapture the spirit and excitement of 2008, Team Obama is asking voters to take an active part in running the campaign in their individual communities.

“This is an exciting time to get involved -- your leadership today will help shape what kind of campaign we can run over the next few months.”